May – Understanding

The lessons from May are many. We started the month with risk off and ended it with risk on.  In between, volatility, driven by uncertainty and fear, proved to be the constant. There was a litany of geopolitical fears to consider:

  • Emerging Market contagion arising from Argentina to Turkey
  • US/North Korea Summit plans being called off, then planned again
  • Fears of a US/China trade war easing before returning
  • US/EU trade talks turning to tariffs
  • US/NAFTA trade talks turning to tariffs
  • US/Iran nuclear deal falling apart
  • Italian government coalition plans being called off then returning, with PM Giuseppe Conte now facing his first vote
  • Spanish government coalition planned then called off while PM Mariano Rajoy was replaced

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