September – Forecasting Errors

September was a difficult month for many investors. The FX market flipped from being dollar offered to bid, bond markets went from bid to offered, and equities—despite higher rates and much uncertainty—held bid across most developed markets. Oil rallied and gold fell, while corn rose and copper fell. The hurricanes and earthquakes in September mixed poorly with politics and policy. The FOMC clearly signaled a December hike and followed through on previous signals by cutting their balance sheet, setting in motion a process to whittle back talk of debt monetization.

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